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Salford student entrepreneurs

Salford student entrepreneurs

19/08/2008 The University of Salford in England has won funding to appoint its own Enterprise Champion, who will help to turn the ideas of students and graduates into viable business opportunities.
 
It is one of only five universities in the North West to secure financial backing from the National Council for Graduate Entrepreneurship (NCGE) and North West Development Agency (NWDA).
 
The Enterprise Champion will offer encouragement, guidance and practical support to students and graduates who possess an entrepreneurial streak, enabling them to explore the possibility of turning their ideas into real money-making ventures.
 
Claire MacLean, the University’s Learning, Enterprise and Development Manager, said: “Winning this funding is great news for Salford.  We were told that we put forward an incredibly strong bid.
 
“The University has demonstrated a real commitment to enterprise in the past and this is a chance to turn those ideas into real business opportunities.”
 
The success of Salford design graduates Paul Dawson and Dwain Brandy is proof of the institution’s existing commitment to enterprise.  With the University’s help, the two entrepreneurs have set up their own company – Let Loose Design – which offers quality design and branding to organisations with smaller marketing budgets.
 
As winners of the University’s Enterprise Academy Boot Camp, Paul and Dwain scooped £5,000-worth of business support, including advice from a business mentor and accommodation for their company in the new £9.6m Salford Innovation Forum.
 
The appointment of the Enterprise Champion will ensure the transformation of more students’ concepts into start-up companies.  As with Let Loose, the University will provide early stage incubator facilities, which will cater for enterprise activity across all disciplines.
 
Claire said: “We have a clear focus about what we want to do with the project and that definitely helped us in our bid to secure this funding.”
 
 

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Matalan shamed

Matalan shamed

19/08/2008 The Forum of Private Business (FPB) is naming and shaming the retail giant Matalan, which is imposing a 2% deduction on all payments to suppliers from 1 September 2008. The company intends to use the money it saves to pay for TV advertising, and other marketing and PR activities. The FPB has entered Matalan into its ‘hall of shame’, which identifies companies which seek to cut costs by squeezing their suppliers.
Also at the expense of its suppliers, Matalan plans to expand retail parks, develop international franchises, expand its online business and refurbish stores. Writing on 17 July, the company’s Buying Director, John Lyttle, told the FPB’s members the retailer would impose the charge to fund ‘drive efficiencies’ and prepare for ‘future growth’. Mr Lyttle promised suppliers: “The benefit from the above expansion will generate increased business, and I hope that you will participate in this growth.”
However, the FPB’s Chief Executive, Phil Orford, said that the FPB’s members supplying Matalan would disagree.
“This is not the first time that Matalan has passed on costs to its suppliers and it represents a payment problem that is endemic across a number of industry sectors,” said Mr Orford. “The fact that this latest charge is being justified to fund initiatives like marketing and international expansion adds insult to injury for many smaller firms, which are struggling to control essential costs as the economic downturn continues.”
He added: “I feel sure that many suppliers are already asking why investment can’t be funded by the substantial increase in profits recently announced by Matalan. The FPB took Matalan to task two years ago for imposing a similar charge which, it insisted, was a ‘one-off’. Clearly, Matalan has an ongoing policy of blatant and sustained abuse, using its size and power to make more money at the expense of its supplier base.”
In 2006, the FPB wrote to the Government and Matalan to protest against its imposition of the mandatory ‘supplier discount’, which was also set at 2%. Shortly before, the retailer had posted a pre-tax profit of more than £36 million. In June 2008, Matalan posted a pre-tax profit of £53.2 million; almost double the figure for 2007.
One supplier, Raymond Frankle, of Frankle Trimmings in London, became so frustrated with the 2006 charge that he broke ranks and spoke out, despite fears that Matalan could withdraw its business as a result.
“We didn’t agree to the deduction and very shortly afterwards the company stopped dealing with us,” said Mr Frankle. “It won’t take out new orders, but neither will it pay back the deduction from our 2005 orders. The thing that hurts me the most is seeing its high-profile advertising campaigns and I am not prepared to let my money pay for them.”
He added: “You enter into a contract and deliver the goods, so it is not unreasonable to be expected to be paid for them. Agreement to a change of payment terms should be reached by both parties, not just one.”
It is understood that Matalan does not plan to introduce the latest 2% charge retrospectively, but some of the FPB’s members are concerned that it will apply for goods they have already delivered.
The FPB’s adviser on payments, Stuart Blake, encouraged Matalan’s smaller suppliers to make themselves aware of their rights under law, including those contained in the Late Payment of Commercial Debts (Interest) Act, which came into force in 1998, following a 15-year campaign by the FPB.
“A change to contractual terms cannot be made unilaterally. This is a simple matter of contract law,” he said. “Suppliers receiving underpayment on deliveries made under contracts agreed before the date of this letter will automatically be entitled to interest under the terms of their original contracts or under the LPCD(I) Act and, if their entitlement stems from the LPCD(I) Act, they will be entitled to a late payment penalty charge as well, assuming their contract post-dates August 2002.”
Mr Blake added a note of caution: “Suppliers should be careful about fulfilling orders received after this letter was sent, since to do so may indicate acquiescence, and therefore ‘acceptance’, of the new terms the letter seeks to impose.”
He said suppliers should emphasise to Matalan that they will only provide goods on the original terms agreed, or try to negotiate new terms that are more favourable, but warned that the company has an ‘absolute right’ to place no further orders with them.
The FPB is protesting against the late payment of small firms by large businesses as part of its ‘Think Smallest First’ campaign, in addition to the practice of imposing unilateral changes of payment terms that leave smaller suppliers struggling.
Following a survey of its members, the British Home Enhancement Trade Association (BHETA) found that, while suppliers are facing an average price rise of 18.5% on their products, they are only realising an average price increase from retailers of 5.8%.
“Some members are dealing with price increases of up to 100% on steel products, and anything between 8% and 50% on other types of products,” said Pam Plant, a director of the BHETA. “On average, raw material costs have gone up 11%, energy costs are up 6.5%, labour costs are up 4%, and logistics and distribution costs are up 5% across the board – and retailers still continue to ask for additional support, up, on average, by 2.6%.”

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How to be successful

How to be successful

Practice Doesn’t Make Perfect, but It Comes Fairly Close
We are not all blessed with the brains, beauty, luck, and capital that we associate with highly successful business people or entrepreneurs. Although most new business ventures fail, a few prosper and grow rapidly. A new article from the Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal demystifies this game of success, and shows that exceptional performance is not necessarily the direct result of special talent, experience, or sheer luck.
Instead, it derives from engaging in sustained, intense, and deliberate practice in a particular area of expertise, in order to improve performance and cognitive thinking levels. Lead author Dr. Robert A. Baron says, “The same principles that apply to starting a new venture, such as self-regulatory mechanisms, and delaying gratification for a more long-term goal, apply to the process of getting in shape athletically. Through a sustained, intense effort someone can build the strength of their body or their business.”
The authors show that across many fields of expertise most people work only “hard enough” to achieve a level of performance that is deemed “acceptable” by themselves and others, with no further gains. Through the principle of deliberate practice most anyone, the authors claim, can rise above this plateau to true excellence.
Entrepreneurs can acquire new capacities that can assist them in starting or running a new venture, or allow them to adapt to unforeseen circumstances, such as a drop in the economy, or PR crisis. These capacities include an ability to zero in on the most important information in a given situation, and more easily access valuable information stored in the long-term memory, or by increasing the capacity of short-term working memory. These factors also help secure a positive outcome: preparation, repetition, self-observation, self-reflection, and continuous feedback on results. These efforts lead to a healthy self-efficacy, or an individual’s confidence in their ability and what is known as mature intuition.

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The forgotten political generation

The forgotten political generation

The forgotten political generation The election campaign may be under way but new research from The University of Nottingham shows that the parties are in danger of immediately writing off at least four million young working class female voters.
The lead author of the report: ‘Lambrini Lady — the forgotten political generation’ — is Professor Steven Fielding, Director of the University of Nottingham’s Centre for British Politics.
“It may sound like a cliché,” says Professor Fielding, “but the fact is Britain’s political class is now, more than ever, dominated by men, the middle class, the middle aged and the elderly.
“The figures speak for themselves: Despite ‘Blair’s Babes’, only 20 per cent of MPs elected in 2005 were women, and while they have helped introduce some positive changes for all women, these changes can be fairly described as modest.”
The report is co-authored by Rob Ford of the University of Manchester and Matthew Goodwin who will be joining The University of Nottingham in the Autumn.
It shows the problem is caused by a mixture of disengagement on the part of the ‘Lambrini Ladies’ and lack of genuine interest in such voters’ concerns from the parties.
The idea that specific social groups hold the outcome of a general election in their hands isn’t new. In the 1980s ‘Essex Man’ was said to be vital to Conservative success; in 1997 ‘Mondeo Man’ and ‘Worcester Woman’ were seen as important to New Labour; in 2001 the ‘Pebbledash People’ were (unsuccessfully) targeted by the Conservatives; and in 2005 Tony Blair turned his sights toward ‘School Gate Mum’. In recent months, it has been claimed that ‘Motorway Man’ possesses the key to the 2010 election.
This new report identifies the latest generation of potential key stakeholders for the parties — the ‘Lambrini Ladies’— as C1/2 and D women of voting age, working full and part-time, usually mums of pre-school or school age children.
The political parties have historically never taken this group seriously, ensuring they were the last to get the vote.
The report shows the ‘Lambrini Ladies’ remain the group that is probably the most alienated from politics. In fact this group take the least interest in politics, with many already having decided they won’t be voting in the 2010 election.
“Many of the women in this group may have decided not to take the election seriously,” continues Professor Fielding, “but there are very good reasons why the parties should take them seriously.
“Compared to others in the electorate they are more open to third party appeals, more likely to ‘don’t-know-who-to-vote-for’ — but are less likely to vote.
“If Gordon Brown can enthuse them or David Cameron change their minds or another party somehow connect with them, they might just end up determining who winds up in Downing Street.”
While there are obvious gains to be made by the parties in reaching out to this group, the report also finds that responsibility lies with the ‘Lambrini Ladies’ themselves and that they should think about taking politics more seriously, no matter how patronising the politicians might appear.
“Only then.” Professor Fielding adds, “will the parties take them seriously and properly address matters like the low level of minimum wage, the pay gap between men and women and the provision of affordable childcare.”
The report insists this is not simply a matter for the ‘Lambrini Ladies’. They reflect a broader process of political disengagement in society, and if they can be enthused about politics, then others can too.
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General Election won by the media

General Election won by the media

As the debate continues to rage on the ability of a Conservative-Lib Dem UK coalition to govern effectively, small- and medium-sized businesses have hailed the General Election as being won by the media.
Questioned shortly before the General Election, participants in the UK Business Barometer quarterly online survey, run by The University of Nottingham Institute for Enterprise and Innovation (UNIEI), overwhelmingly felt that the large amount of press, broadcast and social media comment would have the biggest influence on voters.
A massive 85 per cent of respondents — and an even greater 88 per cent of respondents in its sister survey the UK Business Adviser Barometer (UKBAB) — believed that interpretation and presentation of views in the media would win out over the actual policy proposals contained in manifestoes or party political broadcasts.
Quizzed about the possibility that Britain could wake up on Friday May 7 with a hung parliament, respondents believed this would not bode well for business. More than half of UKBB participants (55 per cent) thought that a hung parliament would worsen economic prospects either somewhat or greatly. In the UKBAB 59 per cent of respondents agreed that the future looked gloomy. Only 18 per cent of UKBB and 14 per cent of UKBAB respondents felt that the economy would thrive greatly or somewhat.
Over the period October 2008 to March 2010 the government streamlined more than 300 different publicly funded business support schemes into a new package of 30 schemes under the title Solutions for Business. These are provided through local, regional and central government departments and private and third sector provision is also brokered through Business Links.
Respondents to the April 2010 UKBB and UKBAB surveys were quizzed on what extent they believed national, regional and local government should be involved in providing business support. The least popular direct source on average, with respondents to both surveys, was national government. UKBB respondents favoured regional government to local, while the reverse was true for UKBAB respondents.
The surveys also posed questions on pension arrangements and benchmarking businesses, as well as the usual quarterly trends questions that cover issues including business growth, skills shortages, the situation with access to finance and the effect of low market demand.
The UKBB and UKBAB online surveys pose a number of topical questions in a bid to uncover the key issues affecting the small business market and how it is coping with the current state of the economy. Operating over the web means that results can be rapidly generated and the surveys have unique software that enables results to be processed and posted on their respective websites immediately they arrive.
More information, including results and analyses, can be found on the web at www.ukbb.ac  and www.ukbab.ac . Businesses and advisers wishing to contribute as panellists on the project should visit the appropriate Business Barometer website to register.

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Finance regulation

Finance regulation

Learning the lessons of finance regulation Economic and Social History at the University of Glasgow has won funding to examine why previous attempts at introducing financial regulation following an economic crisis have failed.   Catherine Schenk, Professor of Economic and Social History has been awarded a substantial grant and a project-linked PhD studentship, together totalling about £490,000 from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) for her project entitled: The Development of International Financial Regulation and Supervision.   The current economic crisis has emphasised the importance of developing a long term perspective on institutional change in order to understand and respond to current and future challenges in the global economic system.   This project will assess the development of international financial regulation by contrasting studies of institutional decision-making in three international financial centres in the late 20th century (from 1961-1982) as the market and regulators responded to a series of challenges and at the same time embarked on a process of liberalisation.   New York, London and Hong Kong offer a range of institutional and political economy contexts in which to examine how regulation was developed, coordinated and applied at both national and multinational levels. In addition to using the archives of central banks, multilateral organisations such as the IMF and Bank for International Settlements, the project will draw on the internal correspondence of international banks and their relations with regulating bodies.   Professor Catherine Schenk, International Economic History said: “Many people have wondered at how the international authorities could have so spectacularly missed the build-up in risky activity in the global financial system over the past 10 years.  In fact, regulators have missed the boat several times in the past with disastrous results, albeit not as bad as the current crisis.     “This project will try to uncover why central banks and international organisations such as the IMF and the BIS failed to deal with excessive risk-taking in international banking in previous crises such as 1974 and 1982.  Hopefully, this will deliver some lessons about how not to repeat these mistakes yet again.”

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ECB has to fight inflation

ECB has to fight inflation

FRANKFURT, April 17 (Reuters) – The European Central Bank has to actively fight the risk of spiralling wages and prices and ensure interest rates are high enough to curb inflation, German Bundesbank President Axel Weber said on Thursday.
Weber’s deep concern that the ECB does not let current record inflation become a long-term trend reflects similar remarks by Executive Board member Juergen Stark on Tuesday and Cyprus central bank chief Athanasios Orphanides on Thursday.
“Recent wage dynamics in conjunction with elevated and persistent energy and food price pressures have increased the risk of a prolonged period of intolerably high inflation,” the German Bundesbank president told the British Chamber of Commerce in Frankfurt.
The ECB’s staff would take this into account when they revised their inflation outlook in June, Weber said. Inflation was unlikely to fall much below 3 percent until the last two months of 2008, and remain well above 2 percent in 2009.
The ECB aims to keep inflation just below 2 percent over the medium term, but in March — when inflation hit a record 3.6 percent — its staff forecast inflation to average 2.9 percent this year and 2.1 percent in 2009.
Weber was more optimistic about the prospects for financial markets and the euro zone economy. Though markets faced more pain, the worst was probably over, and euro zone growth was unlikely to be hurt as much by the U.S. economic slowdown compared to previous downturns, he said.
The ECB has kept rates on hold at 4 percent since the start of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis last summer, and in recent weeks the inflation outlook has increasingly caused economists to write off the chances of an ECB rate cut this year.
Weber said it was essential the ECB did not allow higher food and energy costs to feed into other wages and prices.
“Given the costs of curbing such inflation dynamics once they have started, the stability-oriented Eurosystem has to fight the risk of broad-based second-round effects decisively and proactively,” Weber said in a text from the Bundesbank.
“Against this background, we will have to continuously monitor closely all incoming data and evaluate whether the current level of interest rates in fact ensures achieving our objective,” he said.
Last week Weber ruled out cutting rates, and Stark said at the European Parliament on Tuesday that the ECB had to be ready to act decisively to quash second-round effects.
“These are the first remarks which bring out clear concern about wage deals. I don’t think it suggests a rate hike debate, but you wouldn’t want to mention a rate cut to Mr Weber for a while,” said Holger Schmieding, economist at Bank of America.
“A rate cut this year is unlikely but I still think the ECB is too optimistic for growth,” he added.

FX REACTION
The ECB’s close focus on inflation contrasts with that of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has cut rates by 3 percentage points since the start of the subprime crisis in June and helped drive the euro to a record high against the dollar.
At the weekend the G7 group of top industrialised nations stepped up their criticism of currency volatility, but the euro has still chalked-up fresh records against the dollar.
Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg’s prime minister and the chairman of monthly meetings between euro zone finance ministers and the ECB, said on Thursday that markets had not taken on board the G7’s message, causing the euro to fall.
Weber, asked about Juncker’s remarks, said only that the G7 statement spoke for itself.
But he went into more detail about the turmoil which has wracked global financial markets since last summer.
“Adjustment processes in global financial markets are far from over and … they will continue to be painful. But some positive signs are also emerging now indicating that the worst may be behind us,” he said.
Financial markets were exerting a pro-cyclical effect on the world economy, exaggerating booms and busts, making it even more important to quickly put in place new regulations proposed at the G7 meeting of major industrialised democracies last weekend.
The ECB would also continue its policy of lending extra funds to money markets for as long as tensions persist to try to restore confidence, Weber said, noting that an auction of funds scheduled for July would provide finance out to 2009.
Overall though, Europe’s economy was still in good shape, even if growth this year and next would be somewhat below potential, Weber said.
“For the euro area and Germany, the economic outlook is still favourable.” German GDP had probably grown by about 0.75 percent in the first three months of the year, he added.

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Bedford College Open day

Bedford College Open day

Bedford college offers a variety of courses to enhance your career prospects for a career in business and offer programmes at various levels. We also have Access courses and Business Administration apprenticeships. You may also like to consider our GCSEs or A Levels in Law and Government and Politics, or our part-time evening courses in Marketing (including courses from the Chartered Institute of Marketing), Management (including courses from the Chartered Management Institute) & Accountancy (including courses from the Association of Accounting Technicians).
Whether you are leaving school, an international student, interested in degree-level courses, want to study part-time to improve your job prospects, or would just like to take up a new activity, we want you to understand what it is that makes Bedford College such a great place to study.
We would love to welcome you to one of our Open Days. They are held at the Cauldwell Street site, the Plumbing Technology Centre and the Vehicle Training Centre between 2pm and 8pm.Next open day takes place on 26th January 2011Click here for more information

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Labour cuts income taxes

Labour cuts income taxes

LONDON, May 13 (Reuters) – Britain’s embattled Labour government trimmed income taxes for 22 million people on Tuesday, as soaring food and fuel bills sent inflation rocketing and dented hopes for more interest rate cuts soon.
Higher household bills are creating a headache for increasingly unpopular Prime Minister Gordon Brown and the tax handout came after Labour came third in this month’s local elections — its worst post-war performance on record.
“This family tax cut provides support this year for those on middle incomes at a time where they face increased bills,” finance minister Alistair Darling told parliament as he unveiled the surprise tax cuts.
Ordinary tax payers will get an extra 120 pounds this year and Darling said it would be paid for by a 2.7 billion pound ($5.4 billion) increase in government borrowing, putting further pressure on already tight public finances.
The move was meant to compensate some 5.3 million low-paid people who lost out when the government scrapped a 10 percent income tax band, but went beyond in a dramatic push to woo the voters Labour needs to win the next election due by May 2010.
It was also designed to avoid a humiliating defeat in a parliamentary vote on the budget as Labour rebels made common cause with legislators from other parties on the compensation issue.
This would have compounded Brown’s problems ahead of a key parliamentary by-election next week which polls suggest could result in a gain for the resurgent opposition Conservatives.
The 10 percent tax row, together with concerns over rising food and energy bills and falling house prices, was blamed for the Labour local election rout.
Another headache for the government came as data on Tuesday showed that a record rise in food prices and soaring energy bills helped push inflation up half a percentage point to 3 percent in April, the biggest jump since 2002.
That inflation shock left the rate way above the central bank’s 2 percent target and all but scotched analyst forecasts for a rate cut in June — pushing sterling up and stocks down.
Most economists had thought a June cut was pretty much a done deal as the British economy is slowing because of a global credit crunch and a gridlocked housing market.
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King is now only a tenth of a percentage point away from having to write to Darling to explain how he plans to rein in prices — as required by law if inflation exceeds the target by more than a point.

HOUSING MARKET SUFFERS
There was bad news on the fragile housing market on Tuesday. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS) house price survey posted its worst reading since it started 30 years ago.
Britain’s housing minister also warned in notes she presented to cabinet on Tuesday that the government had no idea how bad the market could get and annual price falls of up to 10 percent were possible this year.
“The dilemma facing the Monetary Policy Committee just keeps getting worse,” said Michael Saunders, economist at Citigroup.
“On one side, the credit crunch and housing collapse threaten to slow consumer spending and the economy sharply … on the other side, strong global cost pressures, the weak pound and surging inflation expectations threaten to produce an extended overshoot of the inflation target.”
Markets are awaiting the BoE’s quarterly inflation report, which will also contain growth forecasts, on Wednesday. The central bank has cut rates three times since the credit crunch hit but the outlook will depend on how much policymakers think slower growth will bring down inflation in the medium term.
While soaring commodity prices around the world — oil hit a record high on Monday — suggest inflation could rise further, the latest data also showed some retailers cutting prices aggressively as they tried to cope with lacklustre demand.
Tuesday’s RICS survey painted a bleak picture for the housing market where prices have started falling after years of double-digit growth as cash-strapped lenders make it harder for people to take out home loans.
Housebuilders are rattled. Redrow Plc and Galliford Try Plc both issued profit warnings on Tuesday. Many analysts are now predicting house prices could go down 10 percent this year.
Yet the less scope the BoE has to cut interest rates, the harder it will be for the market to get back on its feet.
“A dramatic deterioration in inflation prospects during April may be forcing the Bank of England into a corner,” said Matthew Sharratt, economist at Bank of America.
“The worse than expected inflation data in April now implies a serious risk that the next 25 basis point cut, that we had thought would come in June, may now be delayed until August.”

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Northern Foods profits up

Northern Foods profits up

LONDON, May 27 (Reuters) – UK-based Northern Foods reported a 25.3 percent rise in full-year earnings on Tuesday, at the upper end of market expectations, as it cut costs and negotiated price increases with retailers.
Shares in the maker of Goodfella’s pizza and Fox’s biscuits rose 2.6 percent to 88.25 pence by 0840 GMT.
Northern Foods, which also supplies own-label prepared foods to supermarkets, said pretax profit from continuing operations was 50.1 million pounds ($99.09 million), compared with 40 million the year before.
Revenue rose to 931.9 million pounds from 888.5 million.
A Reuters poll of 10 analysts forecast average pretax profit of 48.7 million pounds, with a range of 46.9 million to 50.8 million pounds.
Northern Foods said it had passed on “significant” commodity cost increases, especially in cereals, dairy, cocoa, and fats.
Finance Director Jez Maiden told reporters that last year prices were raised by an average of 2.8 percent. This year, he anticipates prices will rise by between 2 to 2.5 percent.
Operating margin was up 10 basis points on the previous year at 5.2 percent despite the higher commodity costs, driven by a 130 basis point increase in the chilled division and 90 basis point improvement in bakery.
However, Northern Foods warned the current trading environment remained challenging.
“We don’t expect cost pressure to ease during the year. We’re keeping a very close eye on fuel costs and they are a concern to us,” Chief Executive Stefan Barden told reporters.
The group said despite “some caution” it expects its underlying business to continue to make good progress in 2008/9.
Following the sale of several unprofitable businesses a year ago, Northern Foods is now focusing on ready meals, sandwiches, salads, pizza, biscuits, and Christmas puddings.
Barden said the group intends to take advantage of current market conditions to pursue a bolt-on acquisition strategy in both existing and other growth markets.
“We believe that the weaker companies will go to the wall and stronger companies will be able to pick up companies for reasonable prices at some time over the next year or two,” he said.
Earlier this month, Northern Foods announced plans to mothball a factory that makes Italian ready meals for Marks & Spencer, saying it did not provide adequate returns for shareholders.
Barden said there are no current plans to close any other facilities.
Northern Foods has raised its full-year dividend 5.9 percent to 4.5 pence per share.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘buy’ recommendation on the stock. It said the results “demonstrate the pass through of commodity cost inflation” and described Northern Foods’ outlook as “reasonably upbeat”.